<!-- canonical: https://the-waterline.com/issues/2026-10-15 -->
<!-- Machine-readable Markdown for agents. Append .md to any page URL; index at https://the-waterline.com/llms.txt -->

# Blue Mesa Closes WY2026 at 140,029 af, 64% Below the Five-Year Median

_Oct 15, 2026_

> Blue Mesa closes the water year at 140,029 af, 64% below the five-year median, the furthest below normal of tracked reservoirs this week. Dolores and San Juan flows surge week over week.

_Numbers as of Oct 15, 2026 pull._

**Blue Mesa Reservoir** closed water year 2026 at **140,029 af**, 64% below the five-year median and the furthest below normal among tracked reservoirs this week, per Bureau of Reclamation data. Storage slipped 2% on the week. Per the Bureau of Reclamation's September 15, 2026 24-Month Study, Lake Powell enters WY2027 under the Low Elevation Infrastructure Protection Range, with expected annual releases of 6.0 to 7.0 maf, reflecting historically dry inflow conditions that persisted through WY2026.


[Chart: Blue Mesa Reservoir storage](https://the-waterline.com/reservoir/blue-mesa-reservoir) ([data](https://the-waterline.com/reservoir/blue-mesa-reservoir.md) — chart image: https://the-waterline.com/charts/issues/water/2026-10-15/reservoir/blue-mesa-reservoir.png)


**Other notable moves this week:**

- **Dolores River** (USGS): 400 cfs, up 208% week over week, 231% above the five-year median. Largest weekly gain among tracked streamflow series this week.
- **Yampa River, Green River basin** (USGS): 189 cfs, up 178% week over week, still 30% below the five-year median.
- **Bear River, Great Basin** (USGS): 958 cfs, up 158% week over week, 60% above the five-year median.
- **San Juan River** (USGS): 1,960 cfs, up 135% week over week, 221% above the three-year median. The San Juan baseline rests on three years of data.
- **San Luis Reservoir** (Bureau of Reclamation): 1.46M af, 38% above the five-year median, down 2% on the week.

**Drought coverage** (US Drought Monitor): Fresno County at 0%, 36 pts below the five-year median. Kings County at 0%, 99 pts below the five-year median. No moderate-or-worse drought in either county.

**Allocations, standing status:**

- CVP Sacramento River irrigation north-of-Delta, M&I north-of-Delta, Sacramento River Settlement, American River M&I north-of-Delta (Folsom) and In-Delta M&I all stand at 100% (Bureau of Reclamation, announced Feb 26, 2026).
- SWP statewide stands at 45% (Department of Water Resources, announced May 1, 2026).

No allocation changes this week.

**Data note:** The CVP cross-valley irrigation and CVP south-of-delta irrigation allocation series have not updated in over two weeks. Treat figures from those two specific series as stale.

---
Canonical URL: https://the-waterline.com/issues/2026-10-15
